Hi, just saw a tutorial on bitcoin (yes, I'm a newbie). Anyway, they suggested a website to calculate how much you could potentially make (factoring speed, cost of equipment/power, etc.) The site is/was https://bitclockers.com/ It does not seem to be there anymore. Is there another similar site?
Formula for bitcoin price at given time in LibreOffice Calc (Not Excel)
How can I get the daily average price automatically for any given day / time in LibreOffice Calc? Lets assume I have the dates in column A and prices in column B. 1 beer for best formula for XBT/EUR on Kraken. 1 beer for formula for any defined currency pair on Cryptsy 1 beer for bitcoin balance on given address and time
TRUE historical data on yearly lows (correcting repetitive historical false information spread on reddit and twitter)
Recently, wrong historical data on the alleged Bitcoin yearly lows could be repetitively read in ill-researched or "blindly copy-pasted" posts and tweets, e.g. falsely claiming a yearly low for 2013 of $65, where $13 is the correct value (wrong by a factor of 5)! Here is the correct data: TRUE yearly lows (first historically recorded trade occurred at MtGox exchange on 17th July 2010; bitstamp exchange started operation on 13 Sep 2011*): *not included: Bitcoin prices of around $0.003 on Bitcoin USD markets recorded since 25th April 2010, consistent with famous two Bitcoin pizzas from 22nd May 2010 worth $30 for 10,000 BTC. Yearly absolute lows (just omitting obvious implausible data flaws) - not recommended because short outliers of very low trade volumes can bias the view of the real market situation:
2010: $0.03211 (MtGox, 30th August)
2011: $0.289 (MtGox, 2nd January)
2011: $2.22 (bitstamp, 20th & 21st October)
2012: $3.80 (bitstamp, 27th January)
2013: $12.77 (bitstamp, 1st January)
2014: $275.00 (bitstamp, 5th October)
2015: $152.40 (bitstamp, 14th January)
2016: $352.00 (bitstamp, 16th January)
2017: $751.34 (bitstamp, 12th January)
2018: $3122.28 (bitstamp, 15th December)
2019: $3322.19 (bitstamp, 29th January)
2020: <= $6853.53 (bitstamp, 3rd January)
Yearly lows of daily weighted averages - more useful because short outliers with very low volumes are not biasing the statistics:
I've created bitmex BTC profit calculator with notifications.
I was struggling with multiple annoying calculators, ideas, different formulas and excel sheets... I needed something faster and easier, so yesterday morning I created this simple profit calculator for bitcoin. Currently you can calculate multiple versions of profit for limit/market orders, you can also create notifications (plus button on bottom) that will popup when target is reached.You can also generate link via query params, so later I will make user script for it, that way people will be able to run it from trading platform, if such functionality will be needed/helpful. Like lot of things I have made it for myself, however I decided that it may be useful for some of you. Also I hope it will be not so annoying like rest of such apps.I hope I do not violate rules sharing it. (no ads, no BS, only calculator + notifications) https://bitmex-calc.app/
If you know about an app that doesn’t work in iOS 13 or iOS 13.1, comment the name of it and I’ll add the app to the list. Please kindly provide the app link(s) to the app(s) you’re reporting. ⚠️ If the app is partly functional (works but has a few buggy features) or only works on select devices, please include those details in your report. Non-Functional Apps in iOS 13 Beta
Citi (Contains buggy features)
Hulu (Contains buggy features)
INB Mobile Bank (On select betas, app is usable in beta 3)
Thanks for all your app requests! I hope that this list, which will be continuously updated until the final launch of iOS 13, will help other users. ❗️This list has been discontinued. I will no longer be adding new apps to the list since iOS 13 has already been released to the public. Thanks for all your support and I’ll see you next year!
OBJECTS THAT TURBANGAMING HAS SHOVED UP HIS ASS (1-50) Compressed Air Mayonnaise Steam Gift Card Savi’s drippy jacket CSGO Knife Skin Airplane Turban CSGO Knife Skin (2) Apple Happy Camper Shirt APUSH Missing Work Lila Gonzaga Pear Chem Missing Work Mommy English Missing Work Sandwich Calc Missing Work Harriet Tubman Savi’s drip Cheeseburger DS Missing Work Photography Missing Work A chair Slender Fingers Soap Your Mom Sister in the tub ahaha A picture of Savi A box of crayons Table Pink Turban Anthrax A Pot Brownie Diabetes Coronavirus E Sports Vaccine Bitcoin Savi On My Mind Ben flipping a DQ blizzard at work Lost money on bets Mommyvindu Anti-Vax Medicine Practices Daddy 4 grams of weed A Banana peeled only using feet The friend who lives in Arnold, MD Savi’s hairline
Potential BTC value on today's buying power (math experiment)
Today, i want to do a little math to calculate where we are in the crypto space (based on bitcoin). There are 43 million wallets. Source: https://www.blockchain.com/charts/my-wallet-n-users?timespan=all Some people will have multiple wallets, but on the other side, some people will have no own wallet (*). (*) coins on exchange combi wallets. Coinbase has 30 million users (maybe a few more now). Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/coinbase-added-8-million-new-users-in-the-past-year Binance has round about 14 million users (maybe a few more now). Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kFjE-KYbXU8 (start at minute 25) Many users use multiple exchanges! I did not found any exchange with more than 30 million users. ( if you know one, please tell us and include a source link ) On the world live now 7,75 billion people! Source: https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weltbev%C3%B6lkerung (german) 35% of the people are older than 64 years or younger than 15 years. Source: https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/71063/umfrage/weltbevoelkerung-nach-alter-und-regionen/ (german) This leads to 65% potential users, which would be at round about 5 billion people. Now we must accept, no system will be used by "all" potential people... Let´s calc only with 20% of the 65% potential of all the people on planet earth! Now we get a good round 1 billion! Now we just say, each wallet is one single user (as i said many users own multiple wallets, many users own none wallet). ( based on this calculation ) ___43,000,000 BTC users exists today! 1,000,000,000 BTC users are possible in the future! After all BTC are mined, each BTC user could own only 0.021 BTC (average) Today's wealth average per person is at (independent from who you live, just world average!) 70,849 USD ... but only 7,087 USD (median) ... so, let´s use the lower value. Source: https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liste_der_L%C3%A4nder_nach_Verm%C3%B6gen_pro_Kopf (german) If 0.021 BTC represents 7,087 USD... This leads us to a potential BTC value of 337,476 USD (at todays buying power) 3 million, if we use the average wealth and not the median but no person would put all there wealth in bitcoin, so the median value should be better for this calculation. This doesn't mean prices like 1 million / BTC is not possible. It is! And based on todays buying power, not only through inflation. Why? We will see more bubble phases, which get BTC to absurd values! The point is - even if BTC "only" reach roundabout 340,000 USD at today's buying power, this is huge! So go on and stack sats - but this is not a financial advice - only my thoughts Please share your opinion and thanks for your attention.
My installed apps; list mostly of Free and Libre Open Source Android Software
Free and Libre Open Source Software returns power to ordinary, everyday people. Most of these are available on F-Droid. (Use G-Droid for a better UI and excellent ratings system!) AdAway 4.2.2 (org.adaway) -- No better Android ad blocker. Root required. Amaze 3.3.2 (com.amaze.filemanager) APKExtractor Lite 2.8 (com.tutorialsface.apkextractorlite) APKMirror 1.2 (taco.apkmirror) AppOpsX 1.2.5 (com.zzzmode.appopsx) root required Aria2Android 2.0.6 (com.gianlu.aria2android) Aria2App 4.3.0-beta2 (com.gianlu.aria2app) -- Both search for and download torrents in one app! Audio Recorder 3.2.20 (com.github.axet.audiorecorder) Aurora Store 2.0.5-β (com.dragons.aurora) BackgroundRestrictor 1.5.0 (com.pavelsikun.runinbackgroundpermissionsetter) root required Bank Australia 3.6b7 (com.fusion.banking) -- Proprietary. Ethical bank, no Aussie bank has a better app. Barcode Scanner 4.7.8 (com.google.zxing.client.android) Bitcoin Wallet 6.35 (de.schildbach.wallet) BitPay 4.6.2 (com.bitpay.wallet) -- I have this because I couldn't find any Free and Libre Open Source bitcoin cash wallets. Have you heard of any? Please let me know. BlueWallet 3.7.2 (io.bluewallet.bluewallet) Briar 1.1.5 (org.briarproject.briar.android) BusyBox 1.29.2 (ru.meefik.busybox) root required Calendar 6.3.0 (com.simplemobiletools.calendar.pro) Call Recorder 3.0.2 (org.skvalex.cr) -- Proprietary. Meets my needs. Chromium 74.0.3691.0 (org.chromium.chrome) ClassyShark3xodus 1.0-5 (com.oF2pks.classyshark3xodus) -- Great for finding which apps have trackers and then blocking the trackers with AdAway. Contacts 6.3.0 (com.simplemobiletools.contacts.pro) Conversations 2.4.0+fcr (eu.siacs.conversations) Copy to Clipboard 1.0 (se.johanhil.clipboard) DAVx⁵ 126.96.36.199-ose (at.bitfire.davdroid) Draw 4.3.1 (com.simplemobiletools.draw) Dumbphone Assistant 0.5 (com.github.yeriomin.dumbphoneassistant) F-Droid 1.6-alpha1 (org.fdroid.fdroid) FairEmail 1.339 (eu.faircode.email) FastHub-Libre 4.6.7 (com.fastaccess.github.libre) Fedilab 1.75.0 (fr.gouv.etalab.mastodon) Feeder 1.8.8 (com.nononsenseapps.feeder) Feeel 1.94 (com.enjoyingfoss.feeel) Fennec F-Droid 63.0.2 (org.mozilla.fennec_fdroid) File Manager 6.1.2 (com.simplemobiletools.filemanager.pro) Firefox Klar 6.1.1 (org.mozilla.klar) FOSS Browser 6.2 (de.baumann.browser) FreeOTP+ 1.0 (org.liberty.android.freeotpplus) Frost 2.2.2 (com.pitchedapps.frost) G-Droid 0.8.0 (org.gdroid.gdroid) Gallery 6.5.2 (com.simplemobiletools.gallery.pro) GPSTest 3.2.10 (com.android.gpstest.osmdroid) Jitsi 0.1.258 (org.jitsi) KDE Connect 1.10.1 (org.kde.kdeconnect_tp) Kernel Adiutor 0.9.73.3-fdroid0 (com.nhellfire.kerneladiutor) root required LibreTorrent 1.9.1 (org.proninyaroslav.libretorrent) Magisk Manager 7.0.0 (com.topjohnwu.magisk) root required Manyverse 0.1901.2-beta (se.manyver) Markor 1.2.0 (net.gsantner.markor) Messenger Lite 188.8.131.52.156 (com.facebook.mlite) MuPDF mini 1.14.0 (com.artifex.mupdf.mini.app) NewPipe 0.15.1 (org.schabi.newpipe) Nextcloud dev 20190216 (com.nextcloud.android.beta) Nova Launcher 6.0-beta4 (com.teslacoilsw.launcher) -- Proprietary. I tried a few free and libre open source launchers and thought none of them were as good. Nova Launcher Prime 2017 (com.teslacoilsw.launcher.prime) Om 1.0 (com.enjoyingfoss.om) Open Camera 1.45.1 (net.sourceforge.opencamera) Open Link With 2.5-floss (com.tasomaniac.openwith.floss) OpenBeautyFacts 2.9.8 (openfoodfacts.github.scrachx.openbeauty) OpenFoodFacts 2.9.8 (openfoodfacts.github.scrachx.openfood) OpenKeychain 5.2 (org.sufficientlysecure.keychain) OpenVegeMap 0.8.1 (pro.rudloff.openvegemap) -- Vegan! Orbot 16.0.2-RC-1 (org.torproject.android) OsmAnd~ 3.1.6 (net.osmand.plus) Password Store 1.3.2 (com.zeapo.pwdstore) Pedometer 1.0.5 (org.secuso.privacyfriendlyactivitytracker) QKSMS 3.6.1 (com.moez.QKSMS) RealCalc 2.3.1 (uk.co.nickfines.RealCalcPlus) ReoTwé 2.06 (de.digisocken.reotwe) SD Maid 4.11.7 (eu.thedarken.sdm) -- Proprietary. Works quite well. Root helpful. SD Maid Pro 4.3.1 (eu.thedarken.sdm.unlocker) Simple Keyboard 3.5 (rkr.simplekeyboard.inputmethod) -- There is no better keyboard. After per stops using predictive texting per's grammar, spelling, and language skills all increase. Slide 6.0.1-3 (me.ccrama.redditslide) Smart AudioBook Player 4.1.6 (ak.alizandro.smartaudiobookplayer) Stargate Live Wallpaper 3.07 (com.MjolnirInteractive.SGWallpaper) -- Proprietary. Stargate is a fantastic TV show. Suntimes 0.10.3 (com.forrestguice.suntimeswidget) Suntimes Calendars 0.2.0 (com.forrestguice.suntimescalendars) Telegram 5.3.1 (org.telegram.messenger) Termux 0.66 (com.termux) root helpful Tor Browser for Android (Alpha) 60.5.0 (org.torproject.torbrowser_alpha) Transportr 2.0.5 (de.grobox.liberario) Vinyl Music Player 0.19.2 (com.poupa.vinylmusicplayer) WireGuard 0.0.20190215 (com.wireguard.android) Yalp Store 0.45-legacy (com.github.yeriomin.yalpstore) Do you have a list mostly of free and libre open source software? Please share your list of excellent apps! ps. I pre-ordered a Librem 5. I wonder if I'll find it better than my Pixel 2. Update: my server is offline because i'm not a smart person. Will fix it today. Fixed. pss. Here's a TitaniumBackup update.zip (to be installed via recovery) with all of the free and libre open source apks. https://cloud.chickee.net/s/5LYoMFHe5jLFPFj It's hosted on my home server with very slow upload speed (100KB/s), so please download it only if you really want all the free and libre open source apps and can do other things while patiently downloading.
I interlaced everything between Vitalik and Tuur to make it easier to read.
1/ People often ask me why I’m so “against” Ethereum. Why do I go out of my way to point out flaws or make analogies that put it in a bad light?
2/ First, ETH’s architecture & culture is opposite that of Bitcoin, and yet claims to offer same solutions: decentralization, immutability, SoV, asset issuance, smart contracts, … Second, ETH is considered a crypto ‘blue chip’, thus colors perception of uninformed newcomers.
Agree! I personally find Ethereum culture far saner, though I am a bit biased :)
3/ I've followed Ethereum since 2014 & feel a responsibility to share my concerns. IMO contrary to its marketing, ETH is at best a science experiment. It’s now valued at $13B, which I think is still too high.
Not an argument
4/ I agree with Ethereum developer Vlad Zamfir that it’s not money, not safe, and not scalable. https://twitter.com/VladZamfistatus/838006311598030848 … @VladZamfir Eth isn't money, so there is no monetary policy. There is currently fixed block issuance with an exponential difficulty increase (the bomb).
I'm pretty sure Vlad would say the exact same thing about Bitcoin
5/ To me the first red flag came up when in our weekly hangout we asked the ETH founders about to how they were going to scale the network. (We’re now 4.5 years later, and sharding is still a pipe dream.)
The core principles have been known for years, the core design for nearly a year, and details for months, with implementations on the way. So sharding is definitely not at the pipe dream stage at this point.
6/ Despite strong optimism that on-chain scaling of Ethereum was around the corner (just another engineering job), this promise hasn’t been delivered on to date.
Sure, sharding is not yet finished. Though more incremental stuff has been going well, eg. uncle rates are at near record lows despite very high chain usage.
7/ Recently, a team of reputable developers decided to peer review a widely anticipated Casper / sharding white paper, concluding that it does not live up to its own claims.
Unmerciful peer review of Vlad Zamfir & co's white paper to scale Ethereum: "the authors do NOT prove that the CBC Casper family of protocols is Byzantine fault tolerant in either practice or theory".
8/ On the 2nd layer front, devs are now trying to scale Ethereum via scale via state channels (ETH’s version of Lightning), but it is unclear whether main-chain issued ERC20 type tokens will be portable to this environment.
Umm... you can definitely use Raiden with arbitrary ERC20s. That's why the interface currently uses WETH (the ERC20-fied version of ether) and not ETH
9/ Compare this to how the Bitcoin Lightning Network project evolved:
elizabeth stark @starkness: For lnd: First public code released: January 2016 Alpha: January 2017 Beta: March 2018…
10/ Bitcoin’s Lightning Network is now live, and is growing at rapid clip.
Jameson Lopp @lopp: Lightning Network: January 2018 vs December 2018
Sure, though as far as I understand there's still a low probability of finding routes for nontrivial amounts, and there's capital lockup griefing vectors, and privacy issues.... FWIW I personally never thought lightning is unworkable, it's just a design that inherently runs into ten thousand small issues that will likely take a very long time to get past.
11/ In 2017, more Ethereum scaling buzz was created, this time the panacea was “Plasma”.
12/ However, upon closer examination it was the recycling of some stale ideas, and the project went nowhere:
Peter Todd @peterktodd These ideas were all considered in the Treechains design process, and ultimately rejected as insecure.
Just because Peter Todd rejected something as "insecure" doesn't mean that it is. In general, the ethereum research community is quite convinced that the fundamental Plasma design is fine, and as far as I understand there are formal proofs on the way. The only insecurity that can't be avoided is mass exit vulns, and channel-based systems have those too.
13/ The elephant in the room is the transition to proof-of-stake, an “environmentally friendly” way to secure the chain. (If this was the plan all along, why create a proof-of-work chain first?)
@TuurDemeester "Changing from proof of work to proof of stake changes the economics of the system, all the rules change and it will impact everything."
Umm... we created a proof of work chain first because we did not have a satisfactory proof of stake algo initially?
14/ For the uninitiated, here’s a good write-up that highlights some of the fundamental design problems of proof-of-stake. Like I said, this is science experiment territory.
Yes, we know about weak subjectivity, see https://blog.ethereum.org/2014/11/25/proof-stake-learned-love-weak-subjectivity/. It's really not that bad, especially given that users need to update their clients once in a while anyway, oh and by the way even if the weak subjectivity assumption is broken an attacker still needs to gather up that pile of old keys making up 51% of the stake. And also to defend against that there's Universal Hash Time.
16/ Keep in mind that Proof of Stake (PoS) is not a new concept at all. Proof-of-Work actually was one of the big innovations that made Bitcoin possible, after PoS was deemed impractical because of censorship vulnerability.
Oh I definitely agree that proof of work was superior for bootstrap, and I liked it back then especially because it actually managed to be reasonably egalitarian around 2009-2012 before ASICs fully took over. But at the present time it doesn't really have that nice attribute.
17/ Over the years, this has become a pattern in Ethereum’s culture: recycling old ideas while not properly referring to past research and having poor peer review standards. This is not how science progresses.Tuur Demeester added,
I try to credit people whenever I can; half my blog and ethresear.ch posts have a "special thanks" section right at the top. Sometimes we end up re-inventing stuff, and sometimes we end up hearing about stuff, forgetting it, and later re-inventing it; that's life as an autodidact. And if you feel you've been unfairly not credited for something, always feel free to comment, people have done this and I've edited.
18/ One of my big concerns is that sophistry and marketing hype is a serious part of Ethereum’s success so far, and that overly inflated expectations have lead to an inflated market cap.
Ok, go on.
19/ Let’s illustrate with an example.
20/ A few days ago, I shared a critical tweet that made the argument that Ethereum’s value proposition is in essence utopian.
@TuurDemeester Ethereum-ism sounds a bit like Marxism to me:
What works today (PoW) is 'just a phase', the ideal & unproven future is to come: Proof-of-Stake.…
22/ My first point, about Ethereum developers rejecting Proof-of-Work, has been illustrated many times over By Vitalik and others. (See earlier in this tweetstorm for more about how PoS is unproven.)
Vitalik Non-giver of Ether @VitalikButerin: I don't believe in proof of work!
See above for links as to why I think proof of stake is great.
23/ My second point addresses Ethereum’s romance with the vague and dangerous notion of ‘social consensus’, where disruptive hard-forks are used to ‘upgrade’ or ‘optimize’ the system, which inevitably leads to increased centralization. More here:
See my rebuttal to Tuur's rebuttal :)
24/ My third point addresses PoS’ promise of perpetual income to ETHizens. Vitalik is no stranger to embracing free lunch ideas, e.g. during his 2014 ETH announcement speech, where he described a coin with a 20% inflation tax as having “no cost” to users.
Yeah, I haven't really emphasized perpetual income to stakers as a selling point in years. I actually favor rewards being as low as possible while still being high enough for security.
25/ In his response to my tweet, Vitalik adopted my format to “play the same game” in criticizing Bitcoin. My criticisms weren't addressed, and his response was riddled with errors. Yet his followers gave it +1,000 upvotes!
Vitalik Non-giver of Ether @VitalikButerin: - What works today (L1) is just a phase, ideal and unproven future (usable L2) is to come - Utopian concept of progress: we're already so confident we're finished we ain't needin no hard forks…
Ok, let's hear about what the errors are...
26/ Rebuttal: - BTC layer 1 is not “just a phase”, it always will be its definitive bedrock for transaction settlement. - Soft forking digital protocols has been the norm for over 3 decades—hard-forks are the deviation! - Satoshi never suggested hyperbitcoinization as a goal.
Sure, but (i) the use of layer 1 for consumer payments is definitely, in bitcoin ideology, "just a phase", (ii) I don't think you can make analogies between consensus protocols and other kinds of protocols, and between soft forking consensus protocols and protocol changes in other protocols, that easily, (iii) plenty of people do believe that hyperbitcoinization as a goal. Oh by the way: https://twitter.com/tuurdemeestestatus/545993119599460353
27/ This kind of sophistry is exhausting and completely counter-productive, but it can be very convincing for an uninformed retail public.
Ok, go on.
28/ Let me share a few more inconvenient truths.
29/ In order to “guarantee” the transition to PoS’ utopia of perpetual income (staking coins earns interest), a “difficulty bomb” was embedded in the protocol, which supposedly would force miners to accept the transition.
The intended goal of the difficulty bomb was to prevent the protocol from ossifying, by ensuring that it has to hard fork eventually to reset the difficulty bomb, at which point the status quo bias in favor of not changing other protocol rules at the same time would be weaker. Though forcing a switch to PoS was definitely a key goal.
30/ Of course, nothing came of this, because anything in the ETH protocol can be hard-forked away. Another broken promise.
33/ The modular approach to Bitcoin seems to be much better at compartmentalizing risk, and thus reducing attack surfaces. I’ve written about modular scaling here...
To be fair, risk is reduced because Bitcoin does less.
34/ Another huge issue that Ethereum has is with scaling. By putting “everything on the blockchain” (which stores everything forever) and dubbing it “the world computer”, you are going to end up with a very slow and clogged up system.
We never advocated "putting everything on the blockchain". The phrase "world computer" was never meant to be interpreted as "everyone's personal desktop", but rather as a common platform specifically for the parts of applications that require consensus on shared state. As evidence of this, notice how Whisper and Swarm were part of the vision as complements to Ethereum right from the start.
35/ By now the Ethereum bloat is so bad that cheaply running an individual node is practically impossible for a lay person. ETH developers are also imploring people to not deploy more smart contract apps on its blockchain.
Tuur Demeester @TuurDemeester: But... deploying d-apps on the "Ethereum Virtual Machine" is exactly what everyone was encouraged to do for the past 4 years. Looks like on-chain scaling wasn't such a great idea after all.
Umm.... I just spun up a node from scratch last week. On a consumer laptop.
36/ As a result, and despite the claims that running a node in “warp” mode is easy and as good as a full node, Ethereum is becoming increasingly centralized.
37/ Another hollow claim: in 2016, Ethereum was promoted as being censorship resistant…
Tuur Demeester @TuurDemeester: Pre TheDAO #Ethereum presentation: "uncensorable, code is law, bottom up". http://ow.ly/qW49302Pp92
Yes, the DAO fork did violate the notion of absolute immutability. However, the "forking the DAO will lead to doom and gloom" crowd was very wrong in one key way: it did NOT work as a precedent justifying all sorts of further state interventions. The community clearly drew a line in the sand by firmly rejecting EIP 867, and EIP 999 seems to now also be going nowhere. So it seems like there's some evidence that the social contract of "moderately but not infinitely strong immutability" actually can be stable.
38/ Yet later that year, after only 6% of ETH holders had cast a vote, ETH core devs decided to endorse a hard-fork that clawed back the funds from a smart contract that held 4.5% of all ETH in circulation. More here: ...
Hudson Jameson @hudsonjameson: The "semi-closed" Ethereum 1.x meeting from last Friday was an experiment. The All Core Dev meeting this Friday will be recorded as usual.
Suppose I were to tomorrow sign up to work directly for Kim Jong Un. What concretely would happen to the Ethereum protocol? I suspect very little; I am mostly involved in the Serenity work, and the other researchers have proven very capable of both pushing the spec forward even without me and catching any mistakes with my work. So I don't think any argument involving me applies. And we ended up deciding not to do more semi-closed meetings.
40/ Another red flag to me is the apparent lack of relevant expertise in the ETH development community. (Check the responses…)
I personally am confident in the talents of our core researchers, and our community of academic partners. Most recently the latter group includes people from Starkware, Stanford CBR, IC3, and other groups.
I have no idea who described Lucius Meredith's work as being important for the Serenity roadmap.... oh and by the way, RChain is NOT an "Ethereum scaling company"
42/ Perhaps the recently added Gandalf of Ethereum, with his “Fellowship of Ethereum Magicians” [sic] can save the day, but imo that seems unlikely...
Honestly, I don't see why Ethereum Gandalf needs to save the day, because I don't see what is in danger and needs to be saved...
43/ This is becoming a long tweetstorm, so let’s wrap up with a few closing comments.
44/ Do I have a conflict of interest? ETH is a publicly available asset with no real barriers to entry, so I could easily get a stake. Also, having met Vitalik & other ETH founders several times in 2013-’14, it would have been doable for me to become part of the in-crowd.
Agree there. And BTW I generally think financial conflicts of interest are somewhat overrated; social conflicts/tribal biases are the bigger problem much of the time. Though those two kinds of misalignments do frequently overlap and reinforce each other so they're difficult to fully disentangle.
45/ Actually, I was initially excited about Ethereum’s smart contract work - this was before one of its many pivots.
Tuur Demeester @TuurDemeester: Ethereum is probably the first programming language I will teach myself - who wouldn't want the ability to program smart BTC contracts?
Ethereum was never about "smart BTC contracts"..... even "Ethereum as a Mastercoin-style meta-protocol" was intended to be built on top of Primecoin.
46/ Also, I have done my share of soul searching about whether I could be suffering from survivor’s bias.
47/ Here’s why Ethereum is dubious to me: rather than creating an open source project & testnet to work on these interesting computer science problems, its founders instead did a securities offering, involving many thousands of clueless retail investors.
48/ Investing in the Ethereum ICO was akin to buying shares in a startup that had “invent time travel” as part of its business plan. Imo it was a reckless security offering, and it set the tone for the terrible capital misallocation of the 2017 ICO boom.
Nothing in the ethereum roadmap requires time-travel-like technical advancements or anything remotely close to that. Proof: we basically have all the fundamental technical advancements we need at this point.
49/ In my view, Ethereum is the Yahoo of our day - an unscalable “blue chip” cryptocurrency:
Tuur Demeester @TuurDemeester: 1/ The DotCom bubble shows that the market isn't very good at valuing early stage technology. I'll use Google vs. Yahoo to illustrate.
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